Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 4.064807 4.881160 5.792497 6.881378 8.142868 9.554097 11.247889
2025-02-16 2.738539 3.730957 4.959212 6.575266 8.627809 11.128554 14.384210
2025-02-23 1.922958 2.930549 4.294990 6.243198 8.912693 12.396276 17.230933
2025-03-02 1.392899 2.352061 3.760520 5.921382 9.081551 13.450429 19.842255
2025-03-09 1.099863 2.034391 3.507459 5.910861 9.623274 15.005787 23.225458
2025-03-16 0.890963 1.793893 3.312853 5.932401 10.179441 16.598120 26.768764
2025-03-23 0.725816 1.585393 3.123378 5.916241 10.649783 18.077444 30.241938
2025-03-30 0.563952 1.340970 2.822220 5.656146 10.676349 18.850092 32.673509
2025-04-06 0.468394 1.202629 2.683782 5.650409 11.110734 20.286464 36.232868
2025-04-13 0.387470 1.073926 2.537919 5.603329 11.455901 21.589386 39.656226
2025-04-20 0.353826 1.044026 2.583763 5.924119 12.488664 24.123949 45.284161
2025-04-27 0.312678 0.985302 2.557640 6.095149 13.254390 26.246557 50.348816
2025-05-04 0.282428 0.948837 2.578406 6.373937 14.271063 28.921930 56.608179
2025-05-11 0.237623 0.860416 2.464703 6.352134 14.697614 30.567884 61.182132
2025-05-18 0.189846 0.747720 2.270006 6.121549 14.674102 31.374176 64.301415
2025-05-25 0.148942 0.641016 2.066564 5.836412 14.498627 31.867390 66.866635
2025-06-01 0.126477 0.586968 1.989630 5.837080 14.928233 33.553403 71.748527
2025-06-08 0.108358 0.541569 1.926903 5.862314 15.411367 35.375203 76.994057
2025-06-15 0.091888 0.495815 1.853177 5.847705 15.800423 37.030522 82.012385
2025-06-22 0.072258 0.428046 1.696958 5.590695 15.598451 37.451071 84.628547
2025-06-29 0.061440 0.393488 1.637130 5.585181 15.989251 39.135305 89.854715
2025-07-06 0.051550 0.358289 1.566753 5.538630 16.273730 40.609039 94.735345
2025-07-13 0.048910 0.358632 1.619394 5.856250 17.493136 44.187690 104.121164